Is Roger Newcomb right? Are there too many Victor covers at SOD?

Roger Newcomb has been, appropriately, beating the drum about too many Victor covers at SOD.

His latest post on this is here, and says in part:

I hate to beat a dead horse with this, but with daytime ratings in the toilet and subscriptions down, seeing Digest on the newsstand might be the only thing that piques a lapsed fan's interested. And so those people are left with the impression that the only things happening on the soaps these days are the same things that have been going on for decades. How about trying to reel in some new fans or win some old fans back?

And in case someone at Digest hasn't noticed, no soap has lost more viewers than Y&R in the past year (nearly 800,000 viewers since last based based on the Nielsen Ratings for the week ending November 7). Despite the improvement in quality, the ratings are sinking fast so all this promotion isn't helping. Yet THE YOUNG AND THE RESTLESS has been the main cover or partial cover of Digest in 14 of the past 19 issues (that's 74%). And Eric Braeden has been on the cover seven times (with Victor menioned on an eighth). Digest, it's time to turn your attention to the rest of the soap world for a while.

I posted a comment there that said the following:

I'm with you...as a Y&R fan...except for that little bit of sophistry. "Y&R has lost the most viewers....promote other shows" (I paraphrase).

From the premise that there is Victor overkill (I agree...but it MUST be boosting sales, no?)

- Y&R remains that strongest show by most measures, so boosting it COULD serve to boost the industry "flagship". For example, on weeks where Y&R is down, B&B/ATWT/GL are often down too. So, saving Y&R might save the whole CBS lineup

- proportionally, all of CBS is in jeopardy, but Y&R is NOT the "biggest loser" when it comes to percentage loss. These numbers are taken from Toups' ratings archive at Soapoperanetwork:

SHOW, 11/03/08 rating, change since 11/07, 11/07 rating, % change since 07

Y&R, 4674000, -797000, 5471000, -15%
B&B, 3379000, -489000, 3868000, -13
GH, 2895000, -248000, 3143000, -8%
OLTL, 2693000, 34000, 2659000, +1%
DAYS, 2686000, 143000, 2543000, +6%
AMC, 2664000, 184000, 2480000, +7%
ATWT, 2551000, -419000, 2970000, -14%
GL, 2065000, -505000, 2570000, -20%

- From these numbers, GL is in "death trajectory", and GH is not statistically different from Y&R.

- If we're going to make these judgments based on numbers, we probably have to look at "volatility". Y&R is also more VOLATILE than the other shows, showing more week-to-week variation. So, not all weeks look this bad :-).

None of this takes away from your point! I agree that Y&R is getting too much cover time, and that SOD is failing to represent the genre as a whole!

But the argument for SOD to do differently should be conceptual...not on the basis of numbers. Y&R is the strongest show creatively, budgetarily, and in absolute numbers.

My guess is that SourceInterlink would reply that "these covers ARE based on numbers...what sells".

If that is true, how do we deal with it? Just like Soapnet can't afford to show soaps because the financials don't support it...apparently SOD has revealed that the financials now require Victor covers. If that is true...if they don't sell as many issues when other soaps are on the cover, what can we do about that??

Many fans are complaining about the bizarre developments at our soap venues:

- Soapnet is moving away from soaps

- SOD is moving to a Y&R-only format :)

I think we have to remember what is really happening here. The financials are driving these decisions. This isn't about "editor preference" or "bad editorial judgement" or whatever. I'll bet SOD doesn't even get to choose this: I'll bet SourceInterlink is mandating this.

The REAL lesson here is that we are going to have to let go of Soapnet and SOD. They're almost done.

Soaps are moving to the online world...one that is more democratic and less commercial. Roger Newcomb himself is a perfect example: His soap AND his blogsite are terrific...and they are totally internet! That is the future. That is how we get around Madison Avenue.

When Soapnet goes, online broadcasts of surviving soaps will be the new "re-purposing". I expect we'll lose at least a soap a year, maybe more, for the next few years. When SOD goes, Roger and the many wonderful online sites will fill the void...in a far more democratic way. This is simply emblematic of the larger future of broadcast, cable and print.

Y&R Victor's Vasectomy

Okay, I am outraged (as are many of us) that the Y&R writers simply *forgot* about TGVN's TWO previous "snips" (which drove YEARS of story), and made Victor impregnate wife Sabrina without explanation. More than the story hole it creates, I don't understand how a legacy writer (Natalie Minardi Slater), a Bell-family headwriter (Maria Arena Bell), and key principal actors from the vasectomy eras (Eric Braeden, Melody Thomas Scott, Jeanne Cooper, Joshua Morrow, Sharon Case, Eileen Davidson, Peter Bergman) could all be around and this historical inaccuracy be perpetrated.

In case you missed it, some of those actors are not shrinking violets. They said nothing? They were disregarded?

Now, many Y&R viewers I know can't get past this. This is like the mark-of-the-devil on Maria Arena. The fact that steps are being taken to ERASE this storyline from memory (they are allegedly killing the baby mama, they have already killed the baby) is not enough. The fact that they have "explained" (on 7/29/08, Kay told Nikki--who was the FIRST person to ask how Victor could have impregnated a woman after two vasectomies--that Victor had "quietly" had a reversal) does not offer comfort. WHEN did he have this done? WHY did he have this done?

For me, having addressed it--and killed off the story--effectively deals with this mistake (even as I remain concerned that such mistakes can happen again). But I am accused of tolerating lazy writing, which is true.

Here is a three-part rationalization (why I can live with this by writing the story in my own mind) that helps me get through the night :-). The first two parts were posted on SON, and the third part on Usenet.

===

I've decided that I like usenet posters Patricia/Cheri's interpretations of how this could have gone down. (They are at usenet, rec.arts.tv.soaps.cbs).

The idea is that the vasectomy happened when Victor left to find the missing Adam (a story beat never mentioned again). This was right after Nicholas "died". We KNOW he was bereft at losing 'my boy'. So bereft that he took off looking for his other son. It wouldn't take much to convince me that...IN THAT GRIEF...he chose to have the reversal. Remember how he was out of contact with the family? That could be consistent with surgical recovery.

Now, why did he not tell Nikki? Because, while away, he saw that Youtube video of Chow and Nikki kissing. (Let it never be forgotten that Phyllis and Sharon planted that camera...so they are the ultimate causes of all the evil that followed! I have never seen either one feel a moment of guilt about that).

At that point, hating cuckholdery, Victor clammed up and stopped communicating with Nikki. He never resumed his relationship with her upon return. THUS HE NEVER GOT AROUND TO TELLING HER WHAT HE HAD DONE. The relationship no longer warranted it.

Now, would Victor take control of a situation and do what he wanted (like restore fertility) without ever asking his spouse? DAMN RIGHT HE WOULD. That kind of non-consultative control taking without asking others what they think/want is a CLASSIC Victor move.

Okay, so then the next logical question is: If he told Kay, why would Kay never have told Nikki? Now here I acknowledge more of a problem. But again, remember that by the time Victor got back, Nikki and Victor were estranged. They were SOON separated, and divorce followed not too long after. And, not too long after, they had new partners.

Why WOULD Kay tell Nikki her other friend's (Victor's) confidence? It would just rub salt in the wound of the estrangement. It was no longer relevant, quite frankly.

In my view, the ability to keep counsel like this makes Kay a better friend to BOTH of them. I have no problem with this at all.

Again, let us be clear...this is a twist THAT IS WELL WRITTEN BY usenet's CHERI AND PATRICIA :-) . But nothing in the (LAMER) on-screen writing is inconsistent with usenet's Patricia/Cheri's well written twist :-) .

===

Why would Victor do this, KNOWING that Nikki was unlikely to want more children? (Under this scenario, they were NOT divorced or separated when he did this).

Rationalizing (I KNOW this was a stupid mistake!), in the depths of his grief over Nick, Victor (true to form) wasn't CARING about anyone else...including Nikki. "She's my wife, dammit, I raised her from trash, and if I want her to carry another heir for me she will, dammit, or I will hire someone who will!!"

So, I could buy it.

If I don't tolerate sloppy writing, I have to turn off the soaps...and I'm not ready to do that yet.

==

So, next, when would Victor discuss such an intensely personal thing with Kay? Do they really have such a relationship?

Well, here is the scene I wrote in my head about how it must have gone :).

After Victor returns, and he and Nikki are estranged, Kay takes him to lunch.

"Darling," she says, "I am worried about you. Nicholas is dead, your marriage is broken, I am just worried how you are going to cope."

Victor, his pursed lip smile with unsmiling eyes, responds, "Don't worry about me, Katherine. I have dealt with far worse in my life. I built myself from the ground up, and I will build myself again. And I can build a new family too, if I wish."

Kay stares at him penetratingly. After the commercial break, she gestures in the air, with a confused squinting. "But darling, how can you build a new family my dear? I mean, after all, dear God in Heaven, hasn't that horse left the barn".

"Katherine," he would say, his jaw in motion, "If you are referring to my previous vasectomy, I have had it reversed by the finest doctors in the world. They assure me that I can have further children again if I wish. I have lost my boy...but this is not necessarily the end of the line!"

Katherine would be flustered, yet intrigued..."Reversed, dear God Victor, could it be true? Are you sure?"

And Victor would get serious and say, "Kindly do not question my decisions."

"But Victor," Kay would protest, "I am not convinced it is over between you and Nikki, and..."

Victor would interrupt: "There is no hope for Nikki and me, now that she has taken up with that pipsqueak of a man!".

Kay would persist. "But Victor, if and when you and Nikki ever DO reconcile, I am not sure she would want, or would be able, to have another child. Shouldn't you discuss this with her?"

Victor would glower. "Katherine, you know me well enough by now. If I decide to have another son, I will do so. There are many women who would willingly assist me in this. I never thought I would want more children...but the loss of Nicholas has opened my eyes to what more I wish to accomplish!"

While Kay was trying to process, Victor would say, "I do not want anyone to know about this. This is private."

And Kay would say, "But Nikki is my dearest friend. Yet, I must admit, telling her might just cause more pain. Until you and Nikki reunite, I agree there is no need for her to know. But promise me, just promise me, dear Victor, that some day you will tell her if and when the time is right."

Victor would fold his napkin and get ready to rise. "I will do no such thing. I cannot imagine this will ever be Nikki's business to know again. Katherine, my dear, I have a business appointment, so I must take leave. Thank you for the lunch invitation". He would rise and kiss her on the cheek, saying--as he parted: "Kindly have a nice day."

Is DISGUST the emotion fueling ratings loss?

In May-June 2008, Y&R was undergoing a precipitous drop, going from an already low household rating of about 4.0 to a new mean of 3.5 or lower...all in the span of a month or so. This seemed odd...Lynn Latham's last show was 12/24/07...so why would it take so long for the ratings to decline?

Indeed, PJA of SON asserted "Y&R ratings are falling because the current writers are doing a poor job not because of LML."

I just don't think it is that simple, but I have no evidence to disprove your conjecture.

Especially Y&R, with the oldest and biggest audience, should have the biggest proportion of people who "stick through thick and thin".

The massive viewer abandonment of the last few weeks implies that they were ready to leave. If you do not assume that is because LML created a new cohort of more fickle viewers (see an earlier post up-thread), then you have to assume it is because the viewers were "softened"...gotten ready to leave. I read this as JP's hypothesis. There is a cumulative disgust...but it has to get to a certain point before you're ready to tune out. LML got people near the threshhold, and then MAB walked them over it.

Now, to this I add: A lot of us have been blaming the glacial storytelling...the absence of momentum.

I don't think that is what is doing it.

Based on several informal conversations, the near universal comment that is being made is that viewers CANNOT STAND VICTOR AND SABRINA.

Every scene in which he kisses her, carries her up the stairs, they coo French to each other, etc....leads to disgust. I mean really, virulent physical disgust of the type that people turn off the TV.

(I don't have that reaction, but this couple is earning REAL hatred). Because the couple is producing DISGUST (that is a rare emotion for a soap couple to generate)...disgust is the most dangerous emotion. DISGUST is the emotion that makes people walk away from their show.

If my thesis is right, we should see the ALL TIME lowest ratings in the weeks to come. For example, if Victor and Sabrina were ever to marry...I think LEGIONS of fans would switch off.

So, I am now predicting that Y&R will continue to fall...ESPECIALLY in the third week of June. If that happens, it will help confirm that Victor-Sabrina disgust is driving a large portion of viewer defections.

In that case, the only thing that could possibly win fans back is a MASSIVE marketing campaign in which they reveal Sabrina to be an evil art thief, who has totally screwed Victor over. So diabolical, she planned this for years, befriending Vikki in Italy. So cunning, she is revealed to be as the FIRST person to TRULY bring Victor down.

That, I think, might bring disgusted viewers back. They'd love to see Victor eat crow, be humiliated. Sadly, Eric Braeden will refuse to play it, even if it saves the show. If the creative team offered Braeden a followup revenge storyline (in which he hunts the globe trying to apprehend and destroy Sabrina), he might do it...and that might grow viewers.