Saturday, June 21, 2008

I do believe soaps are dying, but you don't have to be mean about it :-)

I dearly miss the soon-to-die "World of Soap Themes" (wost.org). Owner Brian D. Puckett created an unparalleled resource of classic soap clips, themes, and a safe discussion place to talk about them.

Alas, he was henpecked to death, and found enthusiasm about some of his classic offerings was too low to keep offering them.

So, this led to my chiming in. Where to start?

So, WostBrian wrote this on the fabulous Snark Weighs In blog. You have to go there for the full thing, because Snark wants link-only. A few excerpts follow:

I must say that all these "developments" in daytime don't interest me much.... I'm always saddened to read comments from those who think any given soap is "great" right now, when history (yes, friends, history actually dates back prior to 1995). I understand the desire by some to want to "never give up" and I commend those who have the stomachs to withstand this bad period -- this extremely long bad period -- in hopes things will get better. But I know enough about the business of television to know that we HAVE absolutely seen the last of the good times for daytime television. It pains me to say it... but it is the honest-to-goodness truth. Daytime executives are now investing heavily in a young demographic and what they THINK appeals to this young demographic has killed the daytime drama of old that longtime fans have known and loved. This is a big reason why ratings suck so bad... this "desired demographic" is actually small in numbers. Longtime fans... hardcore longtime fans... are leaving or have left. This will NOT get better. All of the hand-wringing and wishing will not change it. I apologize for the harsh tone these words take... but it's true. It's almost comical to watch so many of us grind forth as if things are changing -- as if daytime will suddenly get its legs back. The heavy internet participation here, at SON, and other places online where soaps are discussed and debated isn't an indication of those who enjoy the crap producers are dishing out these days... internet participation is strictly a time-killer. We're here because we enjoy Snark, each other... and it's just something to do other than laundry, the dishes, or washing the car. Sorry for the negativity.. but I really feel as if I'm speaking from the heart and telling the truth of the matter.
Snark made fun of him.

I don't disagree with Brian...that should be clear from my posts. But I somehow feel the tone is wrong. I guess I'm too reverential.

Here is what I said to Brian:

I find WostBrian to be factually right and emotionally wrong :-). On one of the sites he mentions (SON) I and others have recently posted ratings trends (since 1952) that support his thesis. The downward trajectory of soaps began in the 1950s, and you could predict we would get to this point, ratings wise, as early as the 1950s or 1960s. Social forces, like maternal employment, increased viewing options, social stigma about serial drama ("soap opera" was not meant as anything but a perjorative) that discourage new viewers...

I do not concur with Brian that the current creative problems have CAUSED the viewership decline. I find no strong statistical evidence of accelerated decline in recent years (although, I will acknowledge, there has been some acceleration...just not a lot). I believe that there is NO CREATIVE CHOICE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN MADE, of any time, that would have stopped us from getting to this place. A daytime drama is counter to the changing viewing patterns of Americans.

Again, I concur with Brian about recent quality declines. (Well, his thesis is they are not so recent). That is definitely happening, but I think that is symptom, not cause. As budgets get lower and lower and closer to the bone (an inevitability given the ratings decline trends that started in the 1950s), we see the consequence of that on screen. Now, there is no denying too that the taint of desperation--the scent of death--also is leading to some bad decision making. A poster at Usenet said something very clever recently: She said that the short term stints of headwriters and other creative types has led to a kind of existentialism. Because you doubt you'll be around next year, you write for NOW...for the current ratings spike...for what will save your job this month. That, of course, defies the logic of SERIAL drama, which requires setting up for the future.

So, again, I do not deny what Brian sees...but I dispute the causal structure of it. I think what we're seeing on screen today is effect, not cause.

Above, I also talked about the idea that Brian is "emotionally wrong". I'm teasing, kind of, but what I mean is this: All of us who loved WOST saw that Brian just kind of reached the end of his rope. If he was getting lots of complaints, I would have too! His labor of love was a love for all of us...I miss WOST every day. But my point is this: Brian's emotional response--the thing that helped him break free--was a "hardening of the heart". We all have coping strategies, and Brian needed to do his: The genre he loved was dead, some WOST users were emotionally toxic, and he had a more enjoyable life to get too.

That "hardened heart" shows up in this comment.

Again, I do not dispute what he says, but emotionally, I feel like this: Come, friends, let's enjoy these final days. We're down to embers, and they're growing dark. What we see now in no way reflects the bright fire we once enjoyed, but it's still throwing a little warmth. Let's enjoy it while it is there, and let's remember how gloriously it once burned. " If I accept the bitterness and the anger for myself, then I've already lost the genre I love.

Another analogy is the dying relative. Do you just say "She's basically dead already? I'm gonna turn my back?" Or do you sit by her side, stroke her forehead, and remember the better days? Either way, she's dying...nobody is disagreeing on that. For me, though, confronting it with gratitude and reverence makes the pain more tolerable. I don't direct my anger at today's creative types, because really, it doesn't matter. We would have come to this point no matter what. It could not be avoided.

I just felt Brian rolling his eyes :-).


And here is what Brian said back: (he was generous and gracious)

Alas, Mark, I am not rolling my eyes... I think your post has hit the mark! Absolutely awesome! The only point I might take issue with is the notion that a downware trajectory for soaps began in the 1950's. By this conclusion, soaps began a decline immediately upon debut. My feeling is that, though the genre may have seemed stale through much of the 60's, color TV and then videotape led to a remarkable period of innovation and creativity during the 70's and, of course, the early 80's. I think consumer VCR's help sustain this period. I believe technology and societal changes have reduced the number of overall viewers... But ratings held fairly firm even through the emergence of cable tv. The most notable decline, to me, occurred even before the explosive growth of the internet (and still, long before streaming video became a commonplace, quality entertainment option online). The failure of writers to entertain us with clever plots, etc., seemed to me to hit in the mid-90's. It's as if the whole genre ran out of steam. Given that history, I can't wrap my head around the concept of a big decline beginning in the 1950's. But anyway, bravo Mark! You're on the mark... no pun intended! And with regard to WoST, you are SOOOO dead on regarding my state of mind. I'm grateful there are some folks like you out there who can see things so clearly...
In the end, we even had a thread about it at Soap Opera Network.

One thing that is clear...we're all linked in our passion for the genre, and it hurts to see it so sick.

Soapnet's unwinnable battle: Part II

And another thing :-)...

As I write this, I am reading "Worlds Without End", the museum book on the history of soap operas.

Right now I'm reading James Thurber's 1940s New Yorker articles about radio soaps.

In one of his articles, he talks about the cliches that had already come to proliferate. Among them:

- sudden (often temporary) blindness
- sudden (often temporary) paralysis
- sudden (usually temporary) amnesia
- he also talked about the archetypes of the "noble woman" (who was the problem solver), and the "troubled women" who gravitated to her tohelp dealing with life dilemmas

- of course, there were other form cliches (introductory recaps, questions like "Will Polly find true happiness?", organ music), some of which persist or have been re-implemented

Soapy at soaphunks.net has created a list of 100 of these:

http://soaphunks.net/cliches.php

(He also has the 100 "best moments", and I like a lot of them:

http://soaphunks.net/100moments.php)

And herein lies, I think, the other part of the doomsday scenario.

Traditional soap is PLAYED. It is mired in cliche. This has earned the form derision FROM THE BEGINNING. It has made the genre the source of countless lampoons ("As the Stomach Turns").

But, when soaps try to innovate and modify the genre--from Gloria Monty at GH to LML at Y&R--fans raise hue and cry. To this day, articulate people say Monty helped destroy daytime by introducing "filmic" elements. And legions of stalwart Y&R fans, the show that had maintained the most loyal fan base (in absolute numbers) are now abandoning the show in droves, as it trends (more rapidly than the rest of the genre) to a 3.5 or 3.0 household rating.

Rock meet hard place.

ATWT tries to add a beautiful story of coming out. The American Family Institute (or whatever it is called) and its ilk start foaming at the mouth. So, suddenly we see the story cast as a "classic" soap tale with lots of obstacles and no kissing. (I'm simplifying). The result: The viewers "on the right" hate it because it shows open-mouthed homosexuals. The viewers "on the left" hate it because it does not show reality and it seems timid. NO ONE IS HAPPY. The young-male ratings bump that ATWT got from their Nuke romance is rapidly attriting.

I honestly think this daytime form, which I love, has reached the end of its adaptive capacity in the current environment. A powerful set of forces is poised to halt its evolution...and unfortunately the rule of the jungle is "evolve or die". (Did I just characterize myself as a lefty, anti-creationist by saying that?).

The bravest show right now, in terms of evolution, is GL. Although I believe attempts to say that it is in "swan dive" are false (its decline is no faster than others), absent a small uptick in the youngest viewers, I see no evidence that the evolution is succeeding. The only thing that was accomplished, I suspect, is cost savings sufficient to buy the show another year.

I do believe ABC is being brave in its attempts to broaden the base (a nighttime cable network), creating new content to draw new audiences (GH Night Shift), and including modern production values (like CGI--even filmlook, though I hate that). But watch the ratings and the demos.

IT DOESN'T MATTER.

The genre is played out.

Soapnet's unwinnable battle: Part I

At the 2008 Daytime Emmy Awards, ABC heavily promoted the debut episode of the failed Canadian primetime soap MVP. The show would be a new primetime "jewel" for the Disney sister channel, Soapnet. Construed as a hockey-players-wives tale, many viewers decried that it was further evidence that the network, and its' runner (Brian Frons) were out of touch with what soap viewers wanted.

To be clear, Soapnet is a very different network in 2008 than it was when it debuted. The network started with "classic soaps" (notably Another World), which it eventually canceled due to near-zero ratings (after moving it to the wee hours of the day). The network had a lot of original content about soaps and stars (SoapCenter, Soapography, Soap Talk, One Day With, They Started on Soaps)...but all of this content eventually went away. It was replaced with rebroadcasts of failed, youth-oriented soaps (One Tree Hill), and new celeb-reality offerings (The Fashionista Diaries, Relative Madness). A "Sunday Night Movie", having nothing to do with soaps, was introduced. In the process, Frons tried to expand the meaning of "soap" to include all the drama that occurred in the world--especially with celebrities like Britney Spears and Lindsey Lohan. In other words, the network wanted to include gossip and "reality" as part of its imprimatur.

Indeed, the soapnet.com website was rebranded as a celebrity/fashion site, with little soap content.

Now, the lifelong soap fan in me decries this. I feel violated. Viewers of classic soaps lobbied to get Soapnet on their cable systems...and now the network is...well...not very related to soaps.

But I can forgive this when I wear my business/analyst hat.

Well, I actually watched MVP. It is what it is....it is NOT a show I loved, but it was okay. Fair disclaimer; I am an ex-patriate Canadian, I was looking forward to seeing a CBC production, and this wa pretty much what I expected. All the promos have been about abs and sex and...well...that's largely what we got.

As I understand it, though, there IS a fair contingent that likes and misses that kind of show. Let me also say that, in broad strokes, I accept this as a "primetime soap"...and therefore within the appropriate scope of Soapnet.

Alright, with all those disclaimers, here is why I'm not jumping on the "bash Frons" bandwagon:

1. EVERY SINGLE nostalgia network is rebranding and changing. TVLand now show programs from the 90s. Game Show Network is now GSN and is featuring many new shows. American Movie Classics is now AMC...commercialized, colorized, recent content. VH1 is now Celebreality.

The near universal move away from nostalgia programming would suggest that "classic" shows bring neither the numbers NOR the "coveted demographic" if 18-49 year olds.

Thus, in the current market, I do not see that classic soaps can be economically or demographically viable.

2. It goes without saying that soap ratings are in free fall. The steady downward trend in both # of viewers and in household ratings for the soaps began almost at the beginning of the (televised) genre, and where we are today is a straight linear function. So, if you extrapolate it out, all shows will reach a 1.0 rating (which seems to be the point of unsustainability and cancellation) between 2010 and 2016.

Since the 'same day' soaps are the bread and butter of Soapnet, THEY HAVE A PROBLEM. They have an eroding audience that DOES NOT care about watching their soaps in primetime any more than in daytime.

This isn't just domestic. Internationally, countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia are ditching their US soaps. Often, the shows migrate to another network (sometimes a specialized cable service), only to do more poorly in their new home than in the old home. Recent attempts to bring General Hospital to France led to cancellation in weeks. Young and Restless also only last weeks during the recent attempt to bring it back to German airwaves. The Bold and the Beautiful was announced as number one international daytime soap this week, with 25 million viewers. But the REAL story is that that number was between 35-50 million (I don't have the ACTUAL figure in hand, I'm sorry) about a decade ago.

INTERNATIONALLY this is a dying genre...and so Soapnet has a REAL problem. Its CORE is a terminal patient.

3. Showing classic soaps is tricky...very tricky. MOST people will not watch unless they had a history with it.

Take Another World. My era with that--the one I would LOVE to rewatch--is from the early/mid 1980s. Soapnet started after that point. I wanted my Catlin and Sally and brand-new-Jake and introduction-of-Ellen-wheeler and so forth. I tried to watch anyway, but it just didn't grab me (just as it never did during its original run).

Even a show I'm die-hard about, Young and Restless...the nostalgia doesn't really call me. When SoapCity let me pay for old episodes, I did pay for the debut episode. I found it slow and amateurish. I was not motivated to watch more. Now, Sony's "mini-sode" network shows HIGHLIGHTS from the past. There are some really juicy moments there...but I have still only watched a few minutes here or there.

Nostalgia is, in the main, not a draw for many people.

4. A related point is that these are CANCELLED soaps. So figuring out what period to program is tricky. Assume people only want to watch the era that they ORIGINALLY watched. (I realize that may not be true, but I think it is). If you go back too far, you have larger bodies of viewers, but they are OLD. (Old > 49). The networks have NO interest in that. In the case of AW, if Soapnet had programmed the Harding Lemay era...that would have been creatively the best...and the era where the show was number one...but all it would have drawn in were viewers in their sixties and fifties. Madison Avenue (short sightedly) sees ZERO value in that.

But, if you come too close to the present, almost all of these shows were neither at their creative nor viewership zeniths. AW in the 90s, for example, was already well on its' cancellation trajectory (you call it "sick soap syndrome")...so THAT is not the way to build a healthy Soapnet.

==

In the context of all this (nostalgia brands failing, global viewership hemmorhage, the fact that the shows' creative and ratings heights were too far back to draw in desirable demographics), I see no way to win.

I UNDERSTAND why Frons is trying to rebrand the meaning of soaps. I say "more power to him"...because, honestly, there is no future in the narrow definition of soaps (daytime, serial drama).

In that sense, I encourage MVP and even (I am shuddering as I say this) "Relative Madness". It is all experimental. But it is time for radical experiments...because the scent of death is around the corner.

My prediction is that by 2010, Soapnet will have a new name, and it will no longer play even the ABC same-day soaps. That is actually an essential step for ABC to decide that AMC/OLTL are not viable and cancel them by 2012, with GH following in 2013. (You read it here!).

By the way, by this math, I think Days will be gone in 2010, GL in 2011, ATWT in 2012, B&B in 2014, and Y&R in 2016.

So, I give Frons full license to find a NEW audience. I think that audience, sadly, has zero interest in anything we might call a "soap".

Estimated time of death...or the last soap will be cancelled in 2016

So, on June 19, RocketMan compared the ratings for the preceding week to a year before.

Comparing the ratings from a year ago, Y&R still suffered the biggest loss in the ratings: **(last week/last year) June 3-9, 2008 1-Y&R 3.5 (same/-.5)** 2-B&B 2.6 (same/-.2)** 3-GH 2.2 (-.1/-.3)** 4-OLTL 2.1 (-.1/-.2)** 5-AMC 2.0 (-.2/-.3)** 6-ATWT 1.9 (same/-.2)** 6-DAYS 1.9 (+.1/-.2)** 8-GL 1.6 (same/-.3)**

To me, these figures tell the real story. All soaps are down across the board. That's the general trend, and shows where the industry is heading...and it has nothing to do with week-by-week promotion.

The other interesting story is that the AVERAGE one-year decline is greatest for CBS soaps (esp. flagship Y&R). That tells the other big story...CBS is in free fall.

Put these together, and you get the big picture. These little weekly blips in response to promotion etc...we really can disregard them :-).

Indeed, the enduring message that keeps on being clear is that (a) returning big name stars, or (cool.gif hiring big name stars from other shows or © short term stunt casting does NOTHING for ratings. Usually, it doesn't even manifest in a brief one-week blip. BUT, if it does, the blip is invariably small, and does NOTHING to stem the average downward trend.

Look at it this way...across all soaps, the one-year decline has been about .3 or so.

Let's assume that is a linear function, and constant across all soaps (I know these are big assumptions, but play with me). Where does that bring us?

While we're at it, let's make one other TINY little assumption: Soaps are automatically cancelled when they reach a rating of 1.0 or lower.

The first graphic shows the resulting table.





This flawed projection says that we lose GL in 2010 (i.e., this last renewal was its last). It says 2011 is the year of hemmorhage and bloodshed, with Days, OLTL, AMC, and ATWT all leaving us. By the way, that's about right (maybe a year late) given recent contract extensions for Days and ATWT. It says both shows will get one last renewal. Finally, the mighty tumble. We lose GH in 2012, B&B in 2013. Y&R hangs on all the way to 2016.

Of course, I know this is nonsense. Decline is actually FASTER than linear right now. Rank orders shift weekly. The 0.3 loss per year is too global. Still, for me, this kind of figure clearly illustrates inevitability. I'm probably off by a year or so here or there. But basically, this is my anticipated future. I'd love to be proven wrong.

I don't think week-to-week fluctuations in soap ratings are meaningful

I just don't think these weekly fluctuations are meaningful. Most shows are up some weeks, down some weeks. This is what is sometimes know as "steady state fluctuation about a moving average".

The weekly fluctuations truly, honestly, deeply, trust me aren't worth worrying about.

Where you get RELIABLE trend data, for example, is if you break the year into quarters....and you compare each quarter to previous quarters. There is a reason that financial analysts look at company balance sheets that way...they know there are random fluctuations, and they are not interpretable.

Take a look at this wiki on random walk. It gets a bit technical, but the core point is this: The TRAJECTORY makes sense, but the bobs up and down on that trajectory are just kind of random and meaningless.

They use a great analogy of a drunkard walking a city street. The drunkard IS getting from point A to point B, but the path is going to weave and bob. If we want to figure out where the drunkard is going, we can't watch that weaving and bobbing...we have to take a longer-view...follow the drunkard for a while to see where he/she is headed.

So, what we have to do with ATWT...with all the soaps...is watch their quarterly averages. Even that COULD be infused with random fluctuation...(even the annual data Sylph and I keep posting shows annual random fluctuation around moving averages)...but it tells a truer story.

One of my fears is that Madison Avenue and the networks watch these weekly variations and try to interpret them...much as we all do. Really, truly, I hope they do not...because they are MEANINGLESS.

In recent weeks, the ONLY trend that I think bears watching is Y&R. Why? because it fell pretty precipitiously from 4.0...and now...in over a month...it has not rebounded. THAT feels like a reliable trajectory to me. But notice that within that REAL plummet, there is a random walk. (Down to 3.4 one week, up to 3.6 the next). That .2 fluctuation is meaningless. What is meaningful is that the show seems to have "permanently" dipped below 4, and it ain't headed back up. (I say that because really there is little evidence in the history of soaps of trajectory reversals...with a very few exceptions...like GH in the early 80s).

Sorry for the lecture, but I can't help myself.....

Is DISGUST the emotion fueling ratings loss?

In May-June 2008, Y&R was undergoing a precipitous drop, going from an already low household rating of about 4.0 to a new mean of 3.5 or lower...all in the span of a month or so. This seemed odd...Lynn Latham's last show was 12/24/07...so why would it take so long for the ratings to decline?

Indeed, PJA of SON asserted "Y&R ratings are falling because the current writers are doing a poor job not because of LML."

I just don't think it is that simple, but I have no evidence to disprove your conjecture.

Especially Y&R, with the oldest and biggest audience, should have the biggest proportion of people who "stick through thick and thin".

The massive viewer abandonment of the last few weeks implies that they were ready to leave. If you do not assume that is because LML created a new cohort of more fickle viewers (see an earlier post up-thread), then you have to assume it is because the viewers were "softened"...gotten ready to leave. I read this as JP's hypothesis. There is a cumulative disgust...but it has to get to a certain point before you're ready to tune out. LML got people near the threshhold, and then MAB walked them over it.

Now, to this I add: A lot of us have been blaming the glacial storytelling...the absence of momentum.

I don't think that is what is doing it.

Based on several informal conversations, the near universal comment that is being made is that viewers CANNOT STAND VICTOR AND SABRINA.

Every scene in which he kisses her, carries her up the stairs, they coo French to each other, etc....leads to disgust. I mean really, virulent physical disgust of the type that people turn off the TV.

(I don't have that reaction, but this couple is earning REAL hatred). Because the couple is producing DISGUST (that is a rare emotion for a soap couple to generate)...disgust is the most dangerous emotion. DISGUST is the emotion that makes people walk away from their show.

If my thesis is right, we should see the ALL TIME lowest ratings in the weeks to come. For example, if Victor and Sabrina were ever to marry...I think LEGIONS of fans would switch off.

So, I am now predicting that Y&R will continue to fall...ESPECIALLY in the third week of June. If that happens, it will help confirm that Victor-Sabrina disgust is driving a large portion of viewer defections.

In that case, the only thing that could possibly win fans back is a MASSIVE marketing campaign in which they reveal Sabrina to be an evil art thief, who has totally screwed Victor over. So diabolical, she planned this for years, befriending Vikki in Italy. So cunning, she is revealed to be as the FIRST person to TRULY bring Victor down.

That, I think, might bring disgusted viewers back. They'd love to see Victor eat crow, be humiliated. Sadly, Eric Braeden will refuse to play it, even if it saves the show. If the creative team offered Braeden a followup revenge storyline (in which he hunts the globe trying to apprehend and destroy Sabrina), he might do it...and that might grow viewers.

Did Lynn Marie Latham grow Y&R's ratings by stealing from ABC?

Sylph asked me, in early June 2008, "Mark, what happened to viewers Lynn Latham stole from ABC soaps?"

Do we have evidence she did this? I know her ratings spiked twice (John dies; Pheila returns). Did either of these claim ABC viewers?

I'd love to see that analysis!

But, my guess is that they are gone. Indeed, that is a fascinating proposition...

(1) If raters move to Y&R because they are disgusted with ABC, and they hear LML seems to be doing good stuff, I would argue such viewers are BY DEFINITION fickle. ("Real" soap viewers stick with their shows through thick and thin. I know there is disagreement about that on here, but I think this statement is generally true).

(2) So, fickle viewers (soap-switchers) come to Y&R. They have no emotional investment in the show. So, if the show goes bad..or if it just fails to engage their interest, they go away.

This raises a FASCINATING hypothesis, Sylph!

What if the APPARENT growth and stability of early-LML's Y&R was REALLY due to the migration of fickle ABC (and DOOL) viewers? So, when we saw ratings stability and ratings growth during LML, it REALLY masked the departure of long-term stalwart viewers and their replacement by this more fickle pool.

In this scenario, once Y&R returned to its' more traditional pace (which by all accounts it has), the ABC/DOOL viewers--fickle in nature because they have already proven to be soap-abandoners--flew away in droves. That would explain the sudden recent plummets.

I wonder if anyone has the data to track this kind of thing.